Ciao, off topic: I was a bit concerned on how the proposed merger with Crown Joule would affect BEC's CFPS forecast at first. Mostly because it was an unknown. I sure liked the .72 forecast (based on $19.00 oil and $2.50 gas). I've posted Vic Luhowy's response to my query on how the merger would affect BEC, on the BEC thread, but here it is:
"The acquisition of CJE is cash flow accretive to our existing shareholders:
BEC forecasted CF, using $19 oil & $2.50 gas = 5.2 MM$/6.9 MM shares = $0.73/share
CJE forecasted CF, using $21 oil & $2.80 gas = 5.6 MM$
Combined cash flow = 10.8 MM$/12.9 MMshares = $0.84/share = 11% accretion
The reason that their cash flow is at 5.6 MM$ is that they have a higher netback than we do because they receive alot of Alberta royalty tax credit, and because I can eliminate about 1 MM$ of their G&A through the merger.
" <end quote>
So it looks like it's a good deal. Their land position goes from 78,000 net acres to 162,000 net acres, they get on the TSE, and their production ratio flips from 58% oil and 42% gas, to 60% gas and 40% oil.
I should probably have waited to post this reply, as I do intend on adding to my position next week. IMO, the OPEC meeting of March 27/28, paved the way for a helluva rally in the oils. Some of the big players have already started to move (e.g. Talisman Energy... March 24 price = $35.00, now it's around $41.00). Also, the CDNX oil & gas index was up 5% last Friday (March 31).
I could be wrong, but at least I can sleep at night. I've divested myself of all things high tech. The bubble is bursting... no doubt about it.
Best of luck,
JT |
