Subj: PaineWebber sponsored conference call
Date: 03 May 1997 01:17:29 EDT
From: Nyetian, agouron thread on Motley Fool messages
Paine Webber recently sponsored a confeence call on AGPH with Dr. Marcus Conant, who is apparently a respected AIDS authority. My broker kindly sent me a summary of this call put out by Elise Wang, their new biotech analyst. Following is a summary of her summary.
1. Protease inibitors have played a major role in revolutionizing the treatment of HIV+ patients, resulting in decreased deaths, reduction in hospitalizations, reduction in patient visits to the clinic, and decreased numbers of patients who are disabled.
2. Protease inhibitors, despite their high cost, are being accepted by managed health care organizations because they reduce the overall cost of treatment.
3. Viracept has the strongest combination of efficacy, tolerability and ease of use profile among available protease inhibitors.
Crixivan (MRK) must be taken on an empty stomach, while Viracept is taken three times a day with meals.RT inhibitors (used in combination therapies with protease inhibitors) also must be taken three times a day with meals. Therefore Viracept and RT inhibitors can be taken simultaneously, 3 times a day, while Crixivan requires taking meds 5 times daily.
The side effect profile of Viracept (diarrhea treatable with over the countermeds) compares well with that of Norvir(Abbott) and Crixivan (MRK)---severe gastrointestinal side effects including nausea, vomiting and upset stomach.
The lack of bioavailability of Roche's Invirase reduces the efficacy of the product and increases the risk of developing resistant viral strains. Roche is working on a new formulation that may address this problem, but its release is uncertain.
4. Viracept is effective in 95% of patients who have not been treated with other antiretroviral drugs and in 70% of previously treated patients. "Undetectable levels of virus have been maintained in these patients for at least one and a half years" (I'm not sure exactly what treatment regimen he's referring to here)
5. In Dr. Conant's opinion, Viracept has shown the "best patient acceptance of any retroviral product to date" (including AZT, 3TC, d4T, andthe other protease inhibitors).
6. Dr. Conant expects to see substantial switching from other protease inhibitors to Viracept as more clinicians and patients become aware of its greater ease of use and more manageable side effects.
7. The trend among HIV thought leaders is to treat HIV infection as early as possible and as aggressively as posstble with the strongest possible therapies. Dr. Conant sees Viracept as the protease inhibitor of choice in such combination therapies.
Elise Wang has a 1 (PW's highest) rating on AGPH with a 12 month price target of $140. Her 1997 FY EPS EST is -$2.79 (FY ends in June), for 1998 $0.26, and for 1999 about $6.00.
She also mentions the FDA "Regulatory Guidance Letter" (which was mentioned on this board) as a non event. She says "complaiance with the FDA's request is simple and straightforward, and will not impede Agouron's marketing of the product."
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