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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22124)	4/3/2000 3:50:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Digital camera/compact flash memory growth.... Since when is 60% growth a confirmed tornado? MB According to Squire Hawk's timely post #21153, the growth in digital cameras THIS YEAR is > 100%, but annualized is about 50% thru 2003. By comparison, your excellent 1 year review of Qualcomm events notes that most authorities are now anticipating CDMA growth of about 30% per annum. Since this figure is well under 100%, does this mean the tornado is over???? The start of a tornado is roughly defined as annual growth of 80-100% , I think confirmed over a period of several quarters. But just for the sake of discussion, and as you point out in your review of Qcom, the burgeoning growth/size of the market results in slowing growth. So the 30% annual growth in CDMA and the 50% annual growth in Dig. Cams/Compact Flash could be construed to mean that the tornado continues. Since neither of these products has reached Main Street, they must still be in a tornado, by definition (certainly we would agree on CDMA). Is this a reasonable understanding, or would your interpretation be different? If you agree that the Dig. Cam/compact flash market is now in a tornado in Y2K, then should we be investing in SanDisk......or is it a King in the royalty play of portable storage; or is it a gorilla candidate among Compact Flash makers? Stan

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