Mike,
On a day when there is not much to be cheered about, the high point is the 2 exceptional posts you authored. The first is the "Front Office" update and the second is "QCOM" revisited.
As for SEBL, I took my first took a position on 2/14 of this year and have picked away at adding to it 6 times. Although my YTD has touched into the red in the last few days, it was marginally "green" a bit ago and I remind myself that as a ltb&h type that I am convinced that it is a gorilla and I do not have to worry inordinately about the long haul, for that reason.
Likewise QCOM which I first purchased 15 months ago. I am convinced that it is the CDMA gorilla (certainly not a wireless gorilla yet) and I am glad that you are able to conclude that "the (CDMA subscriber growth) tornado continues". That was my sense but I hadn't really evaluated the numbers. I too was disappointed "about CDMA subscriber growth ... the most recent quarter". I am not going to concern myself too much about the quarter to quarter results but will be interested in the year ending numbers and whether or not it remains the "fastest growing" wireless technology "as the base of CDMA subscribers gets larger and larger." China kicking in, continued growth in Latin America, starts in other regions, all become important in watching this metric.
The US remains important. It is an important and positive fact that we have a second national CDMA network taking shape to combat the national TDMA network . We need to be mindful that through M&A we have a national GSM network shaping up (VSTR) and that last year because of the C-Block reauction this network will eventually complete a national footprint. We also have a wild card out there in that SBC & BellSouth operate both TDMA and GSM networks, and these networks along with AT&T appear to be destined to converge in EDGE.
For the short term, I think that earnings and projected earnings are going to be exceptionally important, as we complete the transition to the new business model. I was very satisfied with last quarter earnings and was candidly surprised with the apparently severe but necessary warning about seasonal softness in the current quarter. I am of the opinion that the warning will pay dividends in the long run.
I am intrigued with digital cinema. HDR a potential plus. Globalstar makes me a tad nervous, but I am hopeful, if not convinced, that it will pay off medium to long haul. I am pleased to see Qualcomm headed for SIM based global roaming. This was a long time coming but I think it will open up a revenue stream previously denied (dual mode handsets in GSM land).
Looking out in the crystal ball it looks like cdma as the dominant wireless air interface is a year or 2 further out than I would have projected 9 months ago (2008+ v. 2006).
For certain the migration path from cdmaOne to cdma2000 is an easier one than the one faced by GSM & TDMA networks. This gets me a bit confused from time to time because it is still not clear to me whether 1X is 2.5G or 3G and consequently when I see summary projections of technology adoption I am not real clear as to whether 1X is in the 2.5G projection or the 3G projection. I rely on our diligent thread mate, Cha2, to advise on these issues.
As for FUD, it is still with us, but I am of the opinion that all sides practice it, and will continue to do so.
Ultimately, how WCDMA (hate that generic term) IP, royalty rates, and cross licensing shakes out, are of extreme importance to all of us. For the moment I will watch and wait, content in the knowledge that Qualcomm's IPR position is VERY strong and Qualcomm will defend it to the bitter end.
- Eric - |
