Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium

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To: $Mogul who wrote (92213)	4/3/2000 7:23:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) of 108040

<the avg. investor did not have a choice...the brokers sold for them> Very true. One stat that remains is Margin debt was 179B at the end of January and 265B at the end of February. No numbers for March. (Per Bob Brinker's news show) Been alot of money on the side waiting for tech to decline. I expect some comeback due to Oracle analyst meeting tomorrow and Yahoo earnings on Wednesday. What I saw in the first March correction was people borrowing more on margin to get their capital back. The last five trading day, they probably got wiped out. Very similar to last April correction with Yahoo, Dell, and others. I've been able to convince all of my friends to hold tight in their tech mutual funds despite being down thousands in the last week. One stat: Nasdaq up only 3.7% YTD Dow down 1.8% YTD S&P500 up 3.0% This is the closest the three have been together since the beginning of the year. The loser in all this is the investor who went chasing the hot sector only to watch it dump. The hot sector now is the Dow stocks. Two weeks from now, I'm betting it will be the semiconductors when they announce earnings. I don't like losing 4.8% of my portfolio today, but I have been here before and survived it. In 1987, we all cut our losses and sold at a 60% loss and watched the market rally back in 30% the next year. It seemed impossible that stocks that lost 60% could ever regain their previous high, but most profitable companies did it and better before the decade ended. If I were to bet on a short term bounce tomorrow, look to ORCL, CSCO, and EMC with their new alliance and the ORCL meeting. Jack

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