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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (24609)4/3/2000 9:42:00 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Zeev most of your messages recently have been pessimistic. Do you disbelieve the near-universal assessment that this semi cycle has at least another 18 months to run? Here's one example from today:

semibiznews.com

My guess is that we are seeing a totally simplistic piece of mob psychology... previous semi cycles look like a 2-year sine wave, and it's been a little over 2 years since the last peak, therefore funds are selling because they believe everyone else will be selling. Business fundamentals are temporarily being disregarded in favor of chart patterns. Once the selling starts, the decline becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But if we believe that the cycle isn't really over (a belief shared by most everybody in the industry), the institutions will eventually realize this and come back to buy the now-cheap stocks.

So, which part of this do you think is wrong, and why?
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