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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Wright Sullivan who wrote (10282)	4/3/2000 10:07:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) of 78530

Video observations: I see crosscurrents - Tailwinds helping video stores 3- 5 years: Near term price drops in VCR's and emerging DVD's boost rental demand Expanding penetration of home theater - likewise Negative longer term outlook discourages entrants Headwinds hurtng video stores: Competition for time with internet - more TV viewing is background noise while surfing Digital cable, satellite TV, HDTV [Saw HDTV & HD satellite combination advertised @ Best Buy for $2500 - way below price point I would have expected at this stage] each with multiple PPV represent competing alternatives for video entertainment time & $$$'s VoD thru DSL would be way down the list, but could come on strong down the road. *Halflife of profitability will be a lot less than halflife of revenue due to fixed costs - so it's not a question of when the last video store closes, but how quickly the net fades from black to pink to red....and does the market price under or overestimate this.

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