Economic Data for Tuesday, April 4th, 2000
LEI for Feb. = -0.3%
tcb-indicators.org
The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February.
Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive:
*The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history.
*Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected.
*Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
LEADING INDICATORS. Eight of the ten indicators that make up the leading index declined in February. The most significant decreases-in order from the largest to the smallest-are interest rate spread, building permits, and new orders for nondefense capital goods. (Only rounded numbers are shown in the tables.) The two positive contributors to the leading index are manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials and average weekly hours. The leading index now stands at 106.0 (1996=100).
Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and increased 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the leading index rose 0.5 percent, and eight of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80 percent).
|
