Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony,

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To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote ()	4/4/2000 12:37:00 PM
From: tonyhinkle	Read Replies (1) of 122087

Have you read Harry Dent's book? Mr. Dent has a common sense view of economics and the underlying markets. It is generally based on birth rates, and how generations move through innovation and spending cycles. The interesting thing is that his model shows that overzealous investment is a given whenever a major new industry is being built. In the 1920s it was automobiles. In the late 1990s and early 2000s it is information technology. He projects that the big shakeout will occur somewhere around 2008, with a depression lasting about 15 years thereafter. The generation that will be in its prime spending years at that time is much smaller than the baby boomer generation, whose spending is driving the current boom. Anyway, my point is that, according to Harry's model, what we are seeing right now is not The Big One. This is just some correction, not a shakeout, although we have already seen some of the weakest e-companies begin to fall. I don't want to get into any big discussion about whether he is right or wrong, but his model seems very reasonable to me, and it has worked pretty well for the projections he has made so far. It's a short paperback, so I suggest you read it if you have any questions instead of asking me. Regards, Tony

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