John - IMHO, the street will not see it that way. Expects and valuations are too high for a pause. Actually, this pause, would be best for a long term expansion.
While I generally agree with your assessment that orders in the 2nd half of 00 may level out somewhat for SEMI (how could they not?), I disagree that MTSN could get hammered. Lets imagine that they do flatten at $60M per Q for MTSN - that is about 0.40 EPS per Q, which easily justifies a $30-40 price.
And in this cycle I think it is reasonable to expect that MTSNs revenues will be 5 to 6 times what they were at the peak of the last cycle (i.e. early 96 not 98) or $125M to $150M per Q. Not only have they gained market share, but they are even reasonably successful in a new niche.
Of course with my flawless record of prediction, I expect you to immediately change your mind and hop back in (in all seriousness, my predictions have been less accurate than I would like, but I feel it is necessary to give the other side of the coin.)
Clark
PS Note that in the last year, even when the SEMI Bookings have flattened, MTSN bookings have continued to increase. MTSN seems to do about 10-15% per Q better than SEMI bookings growth. |
