Paul, on SEMI, FYI since I know you own it:
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In my opinion, we have wiped out a lot of speculators, and although tech stocks will do better from some point, because they really are the growth engine of our economy, the future will be less speculative and more earnings driven than the past. Therefore, I think it is prudent to play technology only in reasonably valued stocks with the strongest earnings momentum.
In my opinion, SEMI at a P/E of 5 on what I believe they will make this year, not that much above liquid book value, growing at 10-15% per quarter, book/bill of 130% for the March quarter, and without the risk of catastrophic losses in a semiconductor downcycle that the semiconductor manufacturers have, was a reward/risk no-brainer near today's low - even if it is "just" a semiconductor distributor. |
