markets crash from ignoring reality of fundamental change, or external events like Asian Meltdown which are misinterpreted as they unfold
extreme volatility never precedes big meltdown crashes
today was actually healthy
the most significant high volume reversal I have seen in 20 yrs
1987 was in response to 15% market rise in face of rising interest rates going from 8% to 11%, even rallying after LaborDay... no comparative value
we saw pure Post-Y2K speculative blowoff top, led by techs generally
led by chips, biotechs, internets specifically
today was a final? part of the resolution to the Y2K rally, nothing more
it was an historic Y2K rally, unprecedented
usually big downs follow big ups, not that surprising
I suspected something like this last November
I can never lay it out exactly though, who can?
I pointed to March as a dangerous month
but I got the reasons wrong
Naz still needs time to stabilize
earnings will help to stabilize, but not a cure
you hit it: synchronous growth worldwide, sound fundamentals
the irresponsible got wiped out today, tough margin discipline
I am out there, on edge of margin call, still might get one soon
sideways bear market is highly unlikely, given the signaled volatility
I ask: where is the growth?
enough said
/ JW |
