<OT> t2 - breath of fresh air - a well reasoned post (sadly, a rarity on most MBs these days).
NOK is one of my favorite stocks, I got in big late 97, and only added to my holdings, every time it declined (like Oct. 98) etc. Love this baby. Great business, and FABULOUS management - these guys have a DEEP understanding of their industry and the market, that is MILES ahead of the competition.
Low p/e stocks - idea has merit, but be forewarned: often these "value" stocks stay "value" no matter what. Yes, they'll decline less than a high p/e stock in a vicious bear, but decline nonetheless. And then, when there is a rebound in the market they are last to participate, and when they do participate they do it weakly. Hate 'em frankly. You get all the bother, but none of the reward.
I am soooo conflicted on JDSU. Made decent $ trading it, but never really "invested" (i.e. only held it for swing trading, on climbs, a few weeks at most). I just fear a big selloff one of these days. Great technology, business going gangbusters, but so darn much room to decline, so many people have profits in it, and so much to protect, and so much room for shorts to drive it down. Plus, face it - by any conventional (and many "unconventional", LOL!) valuation metric, this thing is overvalued - I don't want to get into a great big argument over "future technology", "world dominance", "explosive growth" "unlimited market" etc. I have heard it all. Kind of reminds me of JNPR - love to trade this stock - extremely solid ("leading") tech, great industry, growth etc. but valuation... only in this crazy market (that's been crazy for years, LOL!) do people think, "well that's cheap". I trade JNPR practically every day (long or short depending on the action), but "invest"... no thank you.
As to MSFT - own a bunch I've had since the early 90's, and never sold. Somehow, I almost don't care what happens. Not very rational, but my cost base is extremely low, and I just treat it as a giant option that never expires - one day it may surprise me and explode upwards, though that won't be anytime soon - I see it drifting, sinking, drifting etc... but somehow can't bring myself to sell - its kind of like a talisman, I just like the feeling of owning it. Not rational, LOL, but I don't need the $ from selling it anyhow, so its harmless I guess.
Cash - is king. I know - daytrading can be boring. But I find it interesting - especially when I have a bundle riding in the market on a bunch of trades, LOL! Wouldn't want to do it for the rest of my life though - it kills the soul, IMO - but maybe that's just me. When it stops being fun, I'll quit (I've been saying this to myself for the past 3 years though - but the market keeps giving such fabulous opportunities, that I can't refuse... I keep thinking: this cannot last, this is a ONCE in a life-time opportunity, and I'd be criminally negligent not to take advantage of it). I think I need a prolonged bear with low volatility (that's when they stop handing out free money, LOL!), to finally get me off this rollercoaster. But seriously, I'll try to ease off gradually, and get out altogether late this year - I don't really need the money, and I'm set with my portfolio (plus I've been loading up on REITs since late last year - got enough in dividends for the rest of my life, LOL!).
Anyhow, good to hear from you - and nice chatting, though probably next time we should take it to the PM mode as a courtesy to the rest of the posters.
Good luck!
Morgan |
