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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: 100cfm who wrote (22266)4/5/2000 2:13:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
For you, Erick: VALUATION

The one reaction to the manual I've never bought is the idea that since Gorillas have always been undervalued by the market, they'll never get overvalued. The extension of that thought is that any time is a good time to buy a Gorilla.

In the few folders I travel, I'm seeing comments by people who acted somewhat blindly, meaning they acted on the blind faith that any time is a good time to buy. Some bought Gorillas. Some bought companies with "locks" in advance of a tornado.

Understanding that, I'd appreciate reaction to a few questions:

Did i2 get overvalued? Before you answer, take a look at the company's profit margin. Compare it's historic and estimated top-line growth with Siebel's as just one example. Was a PSR of about 60 a couple months ago fair value? After the 60% drop in the stock's price, is it now hugely undervalued? If not, how could the stock not have been overvalued?

Using those same thought processes, did Siebel become overvalued?

Did PeopleSoft become overvalued a long time ago before the precipitous drop?

Did ______________ (you fill in the blank with the name of a Gorilla) become overvalued?

And if you believe JDSU is nothing more than the most powerful King on the planet, does that justify its PSR of almost 120?

In other words, do you believe valuations other than appreciating the stage of the product's adoption life cycle really don't matter?

--Mike Buckley
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