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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.035

-9.1%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3971)	4/5/2000 4:53:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) of 34857

Just when I think this thread can't get any weirder - it does. We might get picked up by Fox Networks if they decide to drop "When Animals Attack"... though I hear that reality-based television is in some trouble after the Darva episode. Good to see you, Maurice. I think that "extra IPR baggage" bit is the most beautiful thing about W-CDMA! This is the central mystery of the 3G struggle; perhaps the entire telecom industry. If there really is no difference between cdma2000 and W-CDMA - why aren't the operators picking cdma2000? It would be so much easier for the IPR point of view - and you would think that since Qualcomm has had about five years to develop cdma2000, it would be well-positioned to turn into an international standard by now. But after the first CDMA operator to make a 3G decision took a good look at cdma2000, it ran screaming. The most likely explanation for the DDI panic attack is that they have genuine and serious concerns about the viability of cdma2000. They will rather pay more for W-CDMA than get stuck with a dud. Now - maybe the concerns are market share related. DDI may be worrying that handset avilability and variety for W-CDMA will always remain superior. Or maybe the concerns are technological. Whatever - but by now two major PDC and one CDMA operator have made a W-CDMA decision. This means that there isn't a chance in hell that a GSM market will pick cdma2000. If it wasn't good enough for Japan, it won't be good enough for England. And that puts both Vodafone and MCI on the spot. They can't pick cdma2000 and risk interoperability problems with EU countries that have only W-CDMA networks. And after MCI and Voda have implemented W-CDMA in England, they will find it extremely hard to pick another standard for Airtouch, BAM and Sprint in USA. This is why Asia and Europe remain the centers of the mobile telecommunications world. The global 3G standardization is being resolved right now in Japan, Spain and England. I don't think that yankees have much say on this topic, Maurice. You can't implement 3G three years later than the leading markets and expect to have any real standardization power. Tero

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