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Step by step design...hmmm. Well, now, thats an interesting request. My view of financial markets and ann's are that they are a reflection and refinement of whatever tools and methods one uses to look at the market. In a purists view, one could say they are looking for the underlying relationships between price and volume that are in some way indicative of future movement. But when you get into that deeply, you have to recognize that there ae so many different indicators and relationships (NSTrader has over 800 alone, and the combination of those are in the millions of possibilities) that one's beliefs and predispositions are going to guide your net development, however subliminally. So what I use works for me because of how I filter or direct it, consciously and unconsciously. I tried once, when I was younger and naive, to just give someone what I did, and it was disastrous for them. They learned nothing and failed to understand the process.
But, on a general level, that could be a good excercise for the thread, to develop a testing process, a methodology that structures the development of a net and the steps one would take to refine it. That would allow the lurkers and posters here to contribute and learn also.
So, if some others are willing, we can start this process with a scope:
Lets pick a sector - my vote is for Tech due to the volatility, trading ranges and volume
Then lets pick an objective: minimize error, maximize profit, accuracy of prediction - I would go for any of them, but if we go with Tech sector, we should probalby forget minimizing error, as the trading strategy we couple with this net would be sector-specific, and the erratic nature means one would use stops rather than a net to handle that concern.
Should we pick a single stock, a few stocks or an index or spyder? I vote for a set of stocks, just because I would want to determine fitness and eliminate spurious data by looking at the individual tickers rather than some masked reaction in an index or spyder, but thats just my vote.
What I would like to hear from others is what they would like to get out of this - the object in my mind would be to help learn How to develop nets. Appreciate that this is not a quick and straightforward process, as there are a lot of qualifications and assessments made along the way that would be revisited each time wone looks at a new net.
What say ye, gang?
lastshadow |
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