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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: John Pitera who wrote (23063)4/5/2000 8:29:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (1) of 42523
 
Odds are at best 50/50. But prior to
yesterday's volatility some smart bond
houses were advancing the odds of a
Friday hike from "dubious" to "possible"
which may in fact have contributed to
the equity decline.

In terms of the bond market, AG is getting
very high marks. A 25bp rise would not be
the end of the equity world...especially if they
end up doing 50bps in May. Under a gradualist
implementation paradigm (a la Greenspan),
25 bps in April followed by 25 bps in May
would be better than 50 bps all at once.
Its like administering antibiotics....small doses
spread out over time are better than large, lumpy
ones.
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