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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: No Mo Mo who wrote (11074)4/5/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: TigerPaw  Read Replies (3) of 35685
 
folks still had plenty of ideas in 1929
There were ideas in 1987, hence a quick recovery.

I have thought a lot about this bull market and how and when it may end - my opinion. I think 1929 marked the end of a new system of innovation that began around 1830 with the steam engine and led to a continuing series of inventions (sound familiar?). By the 1920's new inventions had stopped (Hee hee you say, just look at the patent office). I'm serious though, after the automobile, electric appliances, radio, and airplane there came a decade of refinements, but no really big change of the type that had been propelling the economy for decades. The market value could not be sustained in an era where there wasn't a new innovation building off the previous. I think that between WWI and beginnings of microelectronics there was little to sustain a huge bull market. There was still faster cars, sleeker appliances, TV, and jet airplanes, but these were just incremental improvements of the same mix found in the early decades of the century. Microelectronics and digital software marked the first fundamentally different way making and doing things since the last century. This bull market will ultimately end when most everything that can be digitized has been and the followup products and services become incremental.
TP
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