Ticker, I think that by May there will be an attack not just on VLNC but on the whole NAZ again. As I mentioned, I do not think this rally will get much higher than the 4400 to 4500 area, and since we already reached close to 4300, there is quite a possibility that the move in lieu of being in two weeks or so is compressed into jut two three days.
If I did not raise cash in the last two weeks, I would not have been in a position to exploit the unique weakness yesterday, so I am now once more raising cash, thus my exit.
I also think that the market psychology is changing and now they want to see more than PO, or promises of future shipments, they want to see signs that these shipments are going to be profitable. Since my own estimate is that VLNC top line must exceed $70 to $75 MM to achieve some black ink, and I do not think that this sales rate is in the cards in the next two quarters, I would not be surprised to see $15 challenged again. When I mentioned that target on the break of $26.5 less than a month ago, none of us thought that level would be reached that fast, but now, I believe that we may see $15 before we see $30 again.
Zeev |
