Pallisard, the current market cap of VLNC is around $675 MM, few months ago, the market was willing to look 5 years ahead and value VLNC based on its potential. I think that what we had in the last two weeks, while not yet a bear market, is a prelude to a bear market (which I have said for quite sometime, I would expect within few months after the elections, whoever wins). I still expect a very solid summer rally, and expect VLNC to challenge the $24 to $26.5 area, if that is challenged successfully, then we could still see the mid thirty by election day. If VLNC put on the table a $50 MM or larger PO from a portable PC maker, then there is room for your scenario, but if all we get are one or two additional $5 to 10 MM orders, IMHO, I think that my scenario will more than accurately reflect reality. Since we went to $13 on the last trip down (which I posted here as a "move exaggeration" rather than actual breach of the all important $15 level), I think that a retest of that level is more likely in the next six weeks than $30. That general scenario was painted by me before we broke the $26.5 and when I still owned the stock as well as yesterday, I believe when I owned the stock, so I do not think that my scenario is affected by the fact that I own or not the stock.
Zeev |
