Conseco Insurance (CNO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO)

CNO 41.57

+1.4%

12:47 PM EST

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To: Bosco who wrote (1046)	4/5/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 4155

Bosco; biz.yahoo.com ---------- I didn't sell the covered calls when I planed as they wouldn't pay my price. So today I dumped on the open ( because of her recent pattern ) then doubled a buy at 2pm..then sold calls but not leaps..all this before the above statement was released. Bottom line is I'm now in at 6 3/4 with calls sold ( that 6-3/4 includes what I got for the calls ) ----------------- They could call her from me at 10 in Nov but I never worry about that when I sell calls , ( if she trends up I just buy back the calls before ex date and roll them out and up ) That way I most often get more for the ones I sell then what I have to pay buying them back. In other words it gives me the premo on the calls, plus the dividend on the stock, meanwhile it offers me some down side protection. Volume towards the end of the day looks like she may gap up in the morning. The shorts started covering towards the end of the day. I don't have recent short data but my best guess is it's way up as they jumped on her hard the last few days, it could be double what it was on the 8th of march ( last data ) ; if so that's good. -------------- On the negative side I see Solomon dumped 200k shares at 8 1/2 today..someone else unloaded another 118k block. ------------- Keep in mind most of the volume you see right now is ( one short selling to another short who is covering )..the biggest part of the trades on the bottom are borrowed shares being swaped between shorts , if the over all market goes down the last ones to short get squeezed as all shorts are done on margin, the floor traders and market makers always cover first. I expect CNC to bounce before long likely a strong one..( but I could be wrong ).. ------------------ On the bright side with this kind of volume the "real" buyers ( those not covering shorts ) have stronger hands than the ones who have been selling..in other words a stock passes from weak hands to strong ones as it bottoms. I use risk control with options and can roll up and on an average still make 40% a year collecting premium, plus the dividend and the gain on my first spread. I don't hit em all but about 80%; and I don't lose much when I do get em wrong. The good ones more than offset my mistakes; & more often than not I do bull spreads on beat down leaders, and at this time every spread I have is in the money. ----------------- I haven't felt any pain from the stock market in so long I get the feeling I must be dreaming..most of my spreads are opened deep in the money and when they bounce enough I lock em in with puts, at that point I can forget em and look for more. Jim

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