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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: vince doran who wrote (102443)	4/5/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) of 1575606

Vince, About ThunderBird in June: No, I do not see that happening. The only issue as far as I can tell is the motherboard situation. I think the initial plans were to do Thunderbird release in April followed by Spitfire in May. Intel converting CuMines to Celerons seems to have pushed Spitfire ahead of Thunderbird (though I am not certain this is the case). Such a development would decrease the potential jump in Q2 earnings (coupled with any taxes that AMD may have to pay). Other than that I do not see much of an impact. Inspite of drop in K6 shipments and any hiccups in Thunderbird/Spitfire launch, AMD should do fine in Q2 with substantially higher Athlon shipments. Yougang/Mani, I am more in line with what Yougang's version of "managing" earnings. Retrospectively there were several factors for AMD dump after Q4 earnings but clearly one of the big ones was Jerry's poor job in keeping the street happy. There were many analysts who raised 2000 earnings by $0.50-$1.00 but did not change their ratings (these guys are clearly not in touch with the company but losing face can be big thing for people on 6 or 7 digit salaries). I also think that major players including options market makers, not anticipating massive upside surprise, were short AMD calls and manipulated the heck out of the stock. I DO NOT want to encourage/recommend AMD earnings options plays but I think THIS TIME will be different. Mike (minnow68), Welcome aboard. We have beaten the "can AMD/Intel prosper together" stuff to death on this thread. The answer seems to be that it depends on the market conditions. If demand exceeds AMD/Intel supply, both will do fine. If not, MHz leader will kick butt. A fast ramp of Dresden can do a LOT of damage to Intel. Great day for longs - enjoy! And, remember the best has yet to come. I think we will continue moving up linearly at least until Wilamette ships in volumes. Chuck P.S.: I was thinking that if AMD put enough capacity in place we might exceed 1.1B in revenues. Looks like I will have to live with 1.06B and about $1 in earnings. P.P.S.: Cirruslvr, I have been on vacation for a while but I am back now - just in time to watch the show.

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