Does anyone have any reason to doubt that the 'imminent' announcement by MSFT to become involved with NTOP means that MSFT will be putting a prominent Net2Phone button on their Internet Explorer toolbar?
And that they will take an equity stake in NTOP to 'buy' a seat on NTOP's B.O.D. so MSFT can have at least some influence on the direction of NTOP's VoIP technology?
Reference the WSJ article covering the AT&T/IDTC/NTOP conf call:
"Jonas said he expects Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Net2Phone to strike some sort of deal "imminently," but he did not elaborate. A Microsoft spokesman wasn't immediately available."
-WSJ, March 31, 2000
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A NTOP button in the Microsoft Internet Explorer Browser would be the final piece in the puzzle for NTOP's effective control of the VoIP space. Think about it:
1) BROWSERS: NTOP will have control of the Internet browser realm: (MSFT's IE has 70%, Netscape and other minority players have the rest). NTOP's control will be effectively 100% of the browser space.
2) PORTALS: NTOP will have VoIP control of the most significant Portals on the internet (Yahoo, Go2Net, Infospace...)
4) HANDSETS: IDTC/Panasonic deal to begin marketing VoIP telephone handsets, of course with NTOP's technology.
5) WIRELESS: Less of an assured dominant position for NTOP, but if IDTC and AT&T can funnel some VoIP business (that is, the land portion of the wireless) to NTOP and if NTOP becomes the defacto standard, by all means, wireless will come to NTOP.
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I was NOT surprised that there wasn't a larger pop in NTOP's share price today from the NTOP/Netscape news. First of all, the Netscape/NTOP plans were already announced last year. Secondly, Netscape is an inferior browser with declining market share. Note the following excerpts from this article:
technews.netscape.com
"while the Netscape Web software has been plagued by delays, Microsoft has pumped out new versions that allow faster access to data and printing, simplify use of audio and video, and feature other improvements. "
"Ryder said the Netscape browser has become increasingly irrelevant among commercial Internet users. Instead, it has reverted to something akin to the original Mosaic browser, which popularized Web use in 1993. "
And from CBSMarketWatch:
cbs.marketwatch.com
"Still, the software isn't meant to try and take away market share from Microsoft. The browser war between the two companies that was waged in the mid-1990s is over, AOL executives say. Today, the browser will be used as a way to more easily deliver AOL's features."
HOWEVER, I DO believe NTOP share price will receive quite a jolt of energy if we hear a MSFT announcement of the inclusion of a NTOP button in its browser toolbar because that will have significantly more surprise value and will be the final confirmation of NTOP's dominance.
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Other tidbits from the WSJ article:
"Additional outside investments in Net2Phone appear to be on the horizon. According to Jonas, AOL has been discussing increasing its stake in the company beyond the current 5% level.
Jonas also disclosed that Net2Phone and AOL are close to announcing an agreement to make a joint investment in a privately-held technology company, which he would not identify. An AOL spokeswoman had no immediate comment." |
