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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 5.935+1.0%Nov 21 3:59 PM EST
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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4014)4/6/2000 9:57:00 PM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (3) of 34857
 
I think you're making a lot of fairly persuasive logical arguments Tero,and at the moment WCDMA certainly seems to be winning the race. I wonder about a few things though, like whether it isn't a bit too early to declare who the winners and losers will be. Who would have thought for example that Ericsson would be almost wiped off the handset scene on such short notice, that Nokia would have such a difficult time building CDMA ASICs, that QCOM would still hold such a high percentage of that market, that GPRS/EDGE extend the life of GSM, I could go on.

As you've presumably noticed I'm of the opinion that WCDMA poses a serious challenge for QCOM and makes me wonder about the business model. On the surface it seems that some combination of championing CDMA2000 and the royalty payments so offend everyone that nobody wants to partner with QCOM on WCDMA. ANd I think it's definitely going to turn out to be a problem if QCOM ends up not participating in any of the fully loaded field trials.

I suspect however that is not how things will turn out. You've been writing convincing post mortems for years now but events never follow suit.It looks like QCOM should earn in the neighborhood of 1 bil dollars this year, a nice little sum to devote to research.The patent portfolio provides plenty of bargaining power,as does real life CDMA knowhow. I think IJ is too smart to let the company be marginalized. My bet is that the Q/Ericy partnership already extends to WCDMA, that they're just being quiet about it. We'll see.
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