Ok, fess up time for all. Following is a private message to one of you guys from me from a few days ago, now public. I am encouraged on 9984 behaviour today given the long ago known bad news of profit decline. Hikari is worrying, sinking as it clings to our 9984 neck. Should Hikari disappear, life would be easier for us all.
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What am I doing? Lets me see. I am in Beijing and have been here since Monday. Going back to Hong Kong noontime, looking forward to a short nap and a good read of my outdated March issue of Business 2.0 (recommend the magazine subscription). I have an apartment in Beijing and am equipped with satellite TV. Now that you guys are on daylight saving time the NYSE trading starts at my 9:30pm, allowing me riveting thrills while I play Unreal Tournament. The screaming from my PC speakers goes well with the down-ticks on the TV tube.
What am I doing about money? I added 9984 and I had increased my Philip Morris long (21) and sold more MO January Puts/Calls 20. I intend to achieve 100% return on this position. I am heavy on 9984, Sony and China Telecom.
I had also added a mishmesh (with no concentration whatsoever) of US and HK tech stocks high on rocket fuel vapor: ICGE, VERT, ARBA, CMRC, AKAM, Harbour Ring (715), HKT (8, I believe PCC will have to renegotiate the buy out as its own share price tanks; HKT shareholders have not yet voted OK on merger), Softbank Intl (648), and Hikari Intl (603).
I am watching and will added aggressively (sell put, buy stock) ICGE, VERT, ARBA, CMRC, AKAM, VOD, MSFT and 715.
I am down 16% on stock portfolio since January 1st. I am calm, as the percentage does not hurt yet (down 6% on NAV basis). However I am not hilariously happy, as the absolute number of loss could buy lots of goodies. I am even more pissed when I remind myself that the February peak to current trough is equivalent to a 3,000 sft duplex penthouse apartment on Wakiki beach (or, even better, lots and lots of ARBA and ICGE). Timing is everything.
I am not willing to go beyond 50% equity at this point, just on the off chance that I am wrong (what happens if bond yield goes to 18% and there are no bids for stocks one morning?). At some point I am willing to go to max stock, leaving only enough cash for living, but, gad, that moment would have to be pretty special and I would add very slowly, as a lobster entering the boiling pot of water on own volition.
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