300-mm blank wafers drop to $500 as industry moves closer to initial production
By J. Robert Lineback, Semiconductor Business News
Apr 6, 2000 (11:18 AM)
URL: semibiznews.com
MUNICH -- The selling price of early production-grade 300-mm blank wafers has dropped 20% from a year ago to around $500-$600, but they are still much higher than $60 for an equivalent grade 200-mm substrate, said suppliers at the Semicon Europa trade show here this week. Some industry managers believe price tags on the larger diameter substrates will continue to fall at a steady rate as chip makers begin to start up their first 12-inch diameter wafer fabs in the couple next years. By early 2002, the cost of 300-mm production wafers could slip to $200-300, depending upon the specifications for purity and particles on the substrates, said managers. The highest grade 300-mm wafers, with fewer particles and crystal defects, are now selling for as much as $1,000 today, according to one supplier.
The IC industry faces a chicken-and-egg dilemma when it comes to 300-mm wafer pricing and volume shipments. The cost of the larger diameter substrates could be much lower if volume demand takes off, but the high startup costs in 12-inch fabs remains a hurdle for many device manufacturers.
"Economy of scale is the most important factor for us in reducing the cost," noted Hermann Fusstetter, vice president of the large wafer business unit at Wacker Siltronic AG, based in Burghausen, Germany. "In this way our, business is more like the semiconductor industry than the capital equipment segment."
Fusstetter said Wacker was confident that it and several of its competitors will have enough capacity to satisfy early 300-mm wafer fabs. Some industry analysts have expressed concerns that the severe slump in wafer prices and profits might delay new capacity for 300-mm substrates as the industry attempts to migrate from 8-inch to 12-inch fabs.
In some cases, device manufacturers have been asking for 300-mm wafer prices closer to levels seen on 200-mm substrates--based on square inches of silicon. But vendors are quick to point out that wafer prices have been depressed in the past several years due to the market glut and slow semiconductor growth in the late '90s.
Another key hurdle facing wafer substrate suppliers are the stringent specifications set in the Semiconductor Industry Association's international technology roadmap. For 0.18-micron technology, the roadmap targets no more than 200 particles or defects at a size of 0.09 micron, which can be detected by localized light scattering (LLS). Some wafer merchants question whether that level of high quality and purity is actually necessary for most integrated circuits.
"Infineon Technologies was able to produce good yields on 300-mm wafers with wafer values of 3,000 [instead of 200]," said Fusstetter, referring to the Semiconductor300 joint venture pilot line between Motorola Inc. and Infineon Technologies AG in Dresden, Germany. If the specified levels for 300-mm wafers were eased, prices could come down more quickly, Fusstetter suggested.
Price parity between wafer generations has taken many years in the past. For example, 200-mm wafers still cost more than 150-mm (6-inch) wafers. The 200-mm wafer movement began nearly 15 years ago. "We are determined to cut the time in half [for price parity between 300-mm and 200-mm wafers]," said the Wacker vice president. But the ability to hit that goal will hinge on specifications and how quickly 12-inch fabs being to ramp into volume production.
Estimates for 300-mm production wafer volumes are all over the map. Several suppliers indicated that they agree with near-term forecasts from Rose Associates in Silicon Valley, which is predicting that 280,000 twelve-inch wafers will be shipped to fabs in 2000, up from 70,000 in 1999. Shipments of blank 300-mm wafers are expected to grow 100% in 2001 to about 560,000, according to Rose Associates. The research firm estimates that more than 1 billion 300-mm substrates will be used by the industry in 2002.
"Out that far is still a little hard to call," cautioned Fusstetter. |
