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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: XBrit who wrote (24641)4/7/2000 9:34:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Julius, the growth is not really that great it average maybe 17% or so, which is great, but not justifying the 50% increases in capacity some Asian companies are putting on. It is also much slower than the growth in booking of equipment, and the current rate of booking will still be much greater than the cash flow generated by the chip industry. My point was that this build up is supported by heavy borrowing, and if the Fed's effort to slow the economy (5 consecutive rate increases and more coming) finally succeed in slowing the economy, by the time this capacity is put on line, the growth rate of demand for chips will slack (probably by mid 2001 if not earlier) and bookings for semi equipment will go below a billion on a monthly basis (probably before the peak in chips demand). So a peak in semi equip stock prices between Oct of this year and January of next year is well within that scenario.

Zeev
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