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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Clappy who wrote (11581)	4/7/2000 12:32:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) of 35685

comments from smart people on CNBC: yesterday Alger spoke, had #1 portfolio newsletter ranking (correct me if understand that #1 claim improperly) made three points for current situation - tech selloff is over - expect strong Q1 earnings for techs - expect very strong second half of y2000 Weiss of StateStreet Research (Boston bias, sorry) - slightly slower economic growth to be expected in late spring and early summer ME humbly: finally some sensible economic commentary about growth's response to the Federal Reserve rate hikes... I fully expect the last Fed hikes to happen simultaneously with early evidence that past hikes are taking hold... this is dangerous and points to human error in reading their lagged effect and reacting to that effect... the risk is rather large right now for Greenspan to exert his human control, express his frustration by making a big statement of bravado, and make a huge error with crude oil now 30% off its highs, and TBonds & TNotes each under 6% in yield, we have no perceived inflation threat none, nada, nyet, rien the only threat is excessive stock valuation here & there but this week fixed some of this I must return to a central theme expressed in the past... Greenspan misses two very significant dampening factors to inflation - the internet effectively flattens the pricing playing field - the US labor pool extends to Canada and Mexico in a few clicks, potential customers can check and find lower prices... this has an immediate effect on companies as they adjust product prices more rapidly than at any time in history when was the last time you heard quoted the Mexican unemployment rate? when was the last time the Mexican labor pool was not a factor in US final assembly? when was the last time you heard about a closed border with Canada? never, never, never... I rest my case now time for some sunny relaxation after a hard morning at the office / jim

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