<<have you approached their PR department about a job??>>
No, it's just that I have done a lot of research on FRAC and MTLS. So when the price was really low, I was able to ask myself, "Is your research right, or does the market know better?" My hope was that I knew enough to bet against the market, but it wasn't just pure hope because I felt I had at least done some research.
I don't think that any amount of research can tell you whether a company's strategies will pay off. There is no crystal ball. But what research can provide is the ability to limit your exposure to risk on the downside. And so the knowledge lets you go against the market when you need to.
Frankly, I feel that I know far too little about these companies. I wish people who really had good knowledge would participate more on the thread. For example, a question that has been nagging me is the nature of the future competition between MetaCreations' half-dozen 3D products and the much higher priced ($2,000+) professional 3D products from SoftImage (i.e. Microsoft), Autodesk, etc. Can anyone give an assessment of how the 3D market is divided up? (Or provide a reference to a good analysis or survey article.)
Another thing I wish I understood better is the low-end imaging software market. How will Soap compete against Adobe's PhotoDeluxe and Microsoft's Picture It. I know that Adobe has done a lot of deals with scanner companies and Microsoft recently scored a deal with HP. How will Soap be positioned?
Another question: licensing revenues from RTG from companies like Intel. Where in the world does one start in estimating this revenue stream?
Another question: Goo. Was it just a pet rock kind of thing or will it be an ongoing revenue stream? Who are the main OEMs?
Another question: revenues from Specular. It was a private company, so there are no SEC forms. Does anyone know its approximate revenues? I'm guessing about $4 million per year. Sheer guess.
Another question: what's going on with KPT and Photoshop 4. There is more competition in the filters market--what's hot? Is the market saturated?
Another question: Microsoft. They just announced a big push into multimedia. Does this push create opportunity by increasing functionality at the OS level, or does it announce Microsoft's intention to come in with applications software themselves? What is Microsoft saying about making the interface more 3D?
Final question: Poser II. Seems like such a great product, judging from the press release alone. But it has a low profile. Is this just the result of needing more marketing, or is it just a small niche market? I've noticed that Autodesk has a lot of figure animation stuff--is that the competition?
In my ideal world, threads such as this would be a place for more knowledge to be exchanged. I think that MetaCreations is going to be one of the most interesting companies to watch over the next 5 years, and I really hope this thread picks up!
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