SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (102950)4/7/2000 5:23:00 PM
From: minnow68  Read Replies (5) of 1570699
 
AMD fair price

It breaks my heart every time I read one of these
posts. I've seen long time AMD holders selling out
starting at 28 and continuing ever since. Some were
permanently taking profits. Some were intending to
get back in "after AMD falls back some". Most of the
latter are still waiting.

So, let us examine the question, what is a fair price
for AMD? I'm assuming the year 2000 revenues for AMD
will be six billion and profits will be one billion.

Intel AMD Implied AMD fair price
P/Book 13.3 5.33 $185
P/Sales 15.3 3.65 $310
P/2000 sales 14?? 1.80?? $575
P/2000 earnings 53?? 10?? $392

Now, also take into account that AMD will be growing
(IMHO) much faster than Intel this year. Say the 100%
year over year revenue growth should double again the
fair price for AMD. Therefore, we get a year end fair
price of AMD of somewhere between $370 and $1150. An
average of predictions is usually much more accurate
than any single method. Therefore, my best guess for
AMD's end of 2000 price is
(185 + 310 + 575 + 392) *2 / 4 per
share. That works out to $731 per share at the end of
the year.

Does selling at $74 leaves some money on the table? You
bet it does. I would guess 90% of the money is currently
being left on the table.

Mike
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News