NAV stands at $4.856 B., with the Opus dud IPO in hand (could've been worse, and may well have almost been postponed).
Substantial damage from $6-7B level of only a couple weeks ago, and that was after ICGE had retreated somewhat. Now with no impending IPOs and the IPO market questionable, SFE will not likely file anything immediately, though they may announce one. Major conundrum for SFE mgmt: Bring out something strong now, to continue moving the pipeline forward? You may end up wasting one of your best offerings on a lousy market. Bring out something marginal and risk getting clobbered and/or sullying your reputation? No chance. Wait and see? Absolutely.
So what will drive the stock price?
1. ICGE recovery -- maybe but don't count on it. ICGE was richly priced 3 weeks ago, even more richly priced 2 months ago, or whenever it was at $200
2. Late stage participation in an IPO that is really "hosted" by ICGE or other SFE friend -- TLV, PESP, etc. No indication this type of thing is in the works, but it could happen.
3. Stock market comeback? We may well see a continued upswing from here, but I'd rather see SFE fundamentals drive things.
4. A buyout of a holding -- say CATP or one of the most damaged partners? Entirely possible. In fact overall we may well see the strong companies picking up some bargains at today's prices. CATP, USDC, USIT, EMRG, all candiadates. But I would never invest in a stock on the hope of a buyout.
5. New spinoffs -- eMake may still move forward (USDC) XL Vision may have something up its sleeve.
6. Clever use of the $$ just raised. Could well happen, but SFE is not a rash company, and cash is king. They probably already have the $$ earmarked.
Anyone else have any thoughts? Where do we go from here? I say we may drift up, but it's a shallow slope, and we just fell off a steep cliff |
