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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: minnow68 who wrote (102969)4/7/2000 8:05:00 PM
From: Y. Samuel Arai  Read Replies (2) of 1570630
 
Minnow:
I hope AMD does reach $750/share. I'll pick some back up on the way if I feel that AMD can continue to grow at 100%/year pace...I'll admit there is a good chance of this happening for another couple of quarters. AMD right now is enjoying tremendous growth, thanks to the superior Athlon core and Intel's fumblings. But Intel isn't going to sit still. And beyond this year, AMD's prospects in the CPU business is somewhat uncertain.
The biggest threat coming up is the Willamette which could seriously hamper AMD's growth next year. By early 2001, Intel's low-end CPU may be a "Willaron" 1 Ghz CPU, and the high-end a 1.8Ghz Pentium IV Pro. If megahertz sells, then the Athlon may not be able to keep up in Mhz (thus sales). Clock for clock, the Athlon may be faster, but it'll need Mhz speed to compete. We've already seen that everyone prefers faster Mhz vs. faster (more efficient) performance, illustrated by the lack of market support for the K6-3 CPU, which was proven to be superior to the competition in every way except Mhz.
Intel is playing on this by introducing a possibly less-efficient CPU design, with a lot of headroom for Mhz ramping. Their marketing guys are probably right-on in suggesting this move.
Anyway, I'll be picking up AMD again sometime in the near future...it might be at a higher price than at which I just sold, but I won't complain, as long as I make a profit :-).
Sam
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