Santa Anita Derby
Here's the field for Saturday's Santa Anita Derby
Surfside - Chilukki may have gotten the Eclipse Award as outstanding 2 year old filly, but most veteran horseplayers tabbed Surfside as the premier prospect of her generation. Surfside brought a spectacular pedigree and impressive record into the 1999 Breeder's Cup. In this handicapper's view, she was best that day despite finishing third. Surfside was one of only a handful of horses to run impressively trying to come from behind on the outside part of that racing strip. Subsequent performances of many of the horses that raced that day verified the existence of a strong inside speed bias at Gulfstream Park. Surfside's record has been no different. Since that time she has clearly stamped herself as the best of her division up till now. Today she tries the boys. Generally, fillies are at quite a disadvantage routing against the boys. However, early in the 3 year old season, fillies are generally more advanced and mature than colts. I think Wayne Lukas has the right idea to at least take a shot. The strategy has been successful in the past. Unfortunately, I think it takes a really superior filly to successfully race against colts even at this time of the year. Surfside has shown signs of that kind of brilliance, but this is no ordinary group of colts. She's not impossible, but it will take an improved performance.
Captain Steve - Shown signs of being a top class colt with solid wins over High Yield and Mighty. However, he missed some training and fell behind. The La Derby field was quite deep so his 3rd place finish there wasn't that bad. A series of solid training maneuvers coming into the race leads me to believe that his problems are behind him. I expect an improved performance. He could be very live at a reasonable price.
Anees - His Breeder's Cup was excellent and stamped him as the legitimate Derby favorite. Unfortunately, he has also had a series of mishaps and is now playing catch up. On the bright side the San Felipe was the strongest Derby prep race to date. His close 3rd off the long layoff was quite impressive. He's very dangerous with any kind of improvement - and I expect some.
War Chant - Extremely highly regarded by both his connections and public handicappers. And why not? He's undefeated and improving. But I have to tell you, I don't believe he's shown nearly as much as most believe so far. The San Rafael was NOT a particularly strong field. Sure, War Chant pressed a solid pace, but almost the entire field was getting to him late. And there were no champs in there. The subsequent poor performance of Archer City Slew (2nd) perhaps verifies that the field was not that good. So does the fact that Cocky, a maiden winner coming out of an off the turf mud win got to within 3/4s of a length of him at the wire. He?s very eligible to improve and win this race off only 3 starts. But as a solid favorite this is where the value is - betting against him. If he beats you, let them have the 8/5 or whatever. Despite conventional wisdom he's going to have to improve more than some of the others to get the job done. That set of conditions doesn't warrant heavy favoritism.
The Deputy - A solid win over High Yield and (an off form) Captain Steve stamped him as a contender for the Derby. His most recent race stamped him as a major threat. As I stated before, the San Felipe was the best Derby prep so far and The Deputy ran a huge race. Fusaichi Pegasus is the current Derby favorite and this colt made an impressive and extremely game run at him. I expect another big race today. Everyone else is going to have to move forward a tad to get to where he already is. I believe he deserves to be the favorite.
Cocky - Finished right there against War Chant so it's tough to throw him out. He also seemed to improve when stretched out so maybe he's coming into his own. I would need a huge price here but I don't think he's impossible.
I expect an honest pace so I don't think it will be much of a factor. If there are no biases and the betting goes the way I expect, I will bet to win against War Chant on whomever the best value is among The Deputy, Captain Steve, and Anees. I like the Deputy best on a percentage basis. I may also play exactas leaving War Chant out completely. (I might add Surfside for 2nd) The key will be the prices. The heavier they bet War Chant, the more likely that I will participate in the betting.
Wayne |
