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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (13069)4/8/2000 1:01:00 AM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
MrGreenJeans, Thanks for the NY Fed recession probability statistics. If I'm reading the chart right the current spread between the 10 year note and the 90 day bill if taken as a snapshot might be predicting a 25-30% chance of recession. There is no way that is factored into the market at the moment. Bill Gross was on WSW tonight and said he thought Greenspan was likely to raise a few more times to reach
6 1/2% on Fed funds and then sit with that for a long time. That sounded reasonable to me as I think Greenspan will be in no hurry to lower rates once the economy starts slowing for fear the market and economy will take off immediately.

Marc
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