I look at Thursday's earning surprise to the upside to re-awaken this swap idea....
There is some talk on the Yahoo SUNW thread that, according to an analyst at Bear Stearns, SUNW might beat the street by three cents, or $0.26. Any information about this?
It seems like I end up posting the same wet-blanket message every quarter. First, I don't know how many quarters it's been since Sun "blew out earnings" by more than 2 cents, but it's a 2-digit number. They seem to methodically manage their results to come out right at the consensus and then use guidance to raise the numbers for the next go-round. They don't do blow-outs. If someone can point to a recent blowout during this last 3-year period of substantial growth, I'll retract my statement. So if they come out with a substantial upside surprise on the 13th, I for one will really be surprised, despite what all the analysts in the world say. If things are really that great, then it's going to be 2 cents, folks.
Second, anything on the Yahoo board except a link to a news story isn't worth the bits it's written with. Every quarter, and I do mean every quarter, the 4% of Yahoo SUNW-board messages that aren't spam for bottom-rung stock touting services consists mostly of posts like "SUNW SETS TOMORROW DELL RULES EOM" and "BLOWOUT EARNINGS, 3-FOR-1-SPLIT-US-UP-SCOTTIE!!!", stuff that looks like it was written in the kindergarten computer lab with My First Mouse. It's not a respectable source to quote from.
Once again I'll be glad to be wrong, but I would not just assume a big upside earnings surprise as a done deal, far from it. It would buck a longstanding trend.
--QS |
