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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)4/8/2000 1:51:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) of 57584
 
Hi Rande:

First as a mostly lurker here I want to thank you for the fine work you do.

On your forecast of the upcoming market and looking @ REITs.

My opinion today would be if we were to set a new low on the NAZ, as we enter the typical summer slow down in techs and the FED continues to raise rates we could tip into a recession. Another dip like Tuesday and the news will be doom and gloom and the consumer spending will dry up. If we break the recent low we could go a lot lower.

If we do have a recession remember what happened in 1988 after the 1987 crash. While the market recovered the country entered a recession and real estate values took a big hit. So while the REIT may pay a good dividend the underlying property values could take a pretty good hit.

I'm not sure if we'll set a new low on the NAZ (but it will dip, as to timing its better to be out early than late) in which case the REITs will be fine.

Tim

I would think that would set up a pattern of a lower low and
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