I believe we will have at least a 62% retracement of the big fall (that puts it a top to be tested in the next two to three weeks just under 4600). If that top is taken out with volume, we might be safe until elections. However, I do not think that top will be taken and believe that the NAZ is going back to 3800 or so, that after this rally (another week or, two and if it fails earlier without breaching 4390, then longer) we go back down into late May (quite a traditional scenario of late spring weakness after the April earnings) to 3800. After that, starting sometime by roughly mid June, I see a very strong rally getting the dow to new highs before election (I have a preposterous 13,500 as a top from my work last November and see no reason to change it yet), and the NAZ going to a new "marginal high" (5200 to 5400?).
As for MVIS, it really should not have breached $45, but since the breach was quite "temporary, I classify it right now as a "yellow flag". Any rally above about $51 should, IMHO, set the stage for a retest of the earlier highs in the high 60'. I do not expect these highs to be breached, at least not before the May "swoon" down. Depending on how well MVIS takes the next NAZ decline (in late April early May?) I may change that opinion.
Good luck
Zeev |
