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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: r.edwards who wrote (11909)4/10/2000 9:25:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
TA on Sandisk (SNDK): recovering from 50% whacking

just one month ago, this little dynamo was around 160
then it did a double double correction all the way down to 70

when the weak retest failed at 140 in midMarch, the telltale sign again was much reduced relative strength
the first bounce after coming down from 160 was off the 18day Moving Avg
the second bounce after coming down from 140 was off the 50day MA at 90-100
in all, about 5/8 of the rise from stable February 75 level to the peak was retraced

relative strength did not go below midrange 50 levels until the scarey week last week
now RSI is about at the midrange 50 level again

money flow has improved somewhat in the last week
daily stochastix is definitely on the upswing, which looks as though it will usher continued gains this week

on last week's rebound, SNDK bounced off the 50MA at 100
it now sits right on the 50MA at 115
some resistance awaits at 120-125
you gotta expect some who bought there will bail out there, after this scarey ride south, exiting even
that exit speaks to the essence of technical analcysts

the central question is whether we have a symmetric V-shaped reversal, or a technical reflex bounce followed by consolidation

my guess is that shorterm, a V-shaped governs
my guess is that nearterm the latter, with consolidation in the 110-130 range
when earnings are out and announced, the news vacuum in May will not spur moves to old highs, but rather will usher in consolidating efforts
this consolidation will be evident thruout Naz tech stocks

now the MA's are all bunched at 100-115
expect support at 110 for the next few weeks
just an opinion of an idle mathgeek
/ Jim Willie
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