about QQQ, interest rates, sentiment:
3/24 QQQ peak at 120
4/4 trough at 91
support at 100
The brief dip on 4/4 below support was a head-fake, one of those things that make support/resistance lines hard to use. I covered all my shorts in the afternoon, when it looked like the index was going to get back up to, and close, above 100. The trouble is, that once you're really sure that support or resistance lines have been broken, a large part of the move has already been made.
So, are we making a right shoulder? I'm on the sidelines, watching. I may start shorting again at 110, in increments. Or I may wait until I see that we definitely are not going to get above 120. Or, I suppose I could wait till we close below 100.
Just in the last week, I'm hearing a lot of people saying, for the first time in years, "buy value, buy the old economy, buy companies making profits, buy companies with a track record." Just heard Ms. Dudak (sp.) say this on CNBC. I guess the 4/4 volatility made people think about the fact that concept stocks can go down just as fast as they go up. And, I guess people are hoping the Fed is close to finishing hiking rates. Wishful thinking, that. Longterm Treasury rates have come down, but that is just "flight to quality/safety", and supply/demand. Mortgage rates, and other longterm interest rates, have not come down, and seem to have disconnected from Treasuries. The economy has just barely started to slow, and the job market is still tightening. |
