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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (103425)4/10/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: that_crazy_doug  Read Replies (2) of 1570365
 
<< To not be a flash in the pan, AMD needs to do better than what you have suggested........its really critical that the company perform in such a way that it doesn't fall behind Intel like it used to and that it doesn't lose investors like you or I. AMD needs to develop stability and ongoing credibility. >>

I agree with you completely. I am just not confident that AMD will execute when it comes to that. It takes a long time to make a new core. If the willamete core is better, and AMD doesn't have a new core ready to launch, it will be extremely difficult for them to maintain parity with intel. That same philosophy is why AMD is going to have such an easy run for the first few quarters this year. There is very little intel can do to narrow the difference between the athlon and p6 core.

There are a few saving graces for AMD in this situation that I can see. 1) DDR vs RDR ram will greatly help amd in both performance and price/performance. 2) Copper should give them a larger and larger advantage as the processes get smaller. 3) They'll most likely be able to go to .13 a lot faster since athlon is more mature and they're already experimenting with a lot of .13 parts 4) With willamete's radically redesigned fpu, older apps may run better on an equivilently clocked athlon. 5) Willamete has a lot of questions on it still. (does it yield well?, how much heat does it dissipate, new platform means high bug potential, etc etc)

However, if intel fights through those problems before AMD gets to sledgehammer, they could be in big trouble again. Also, sledgehammer will have to go through all the new qualification issues that willamete does, and we won't know how good it looks either.
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