<< I may sell a little here so that I can pick up double after the pullback....but its a risky game. It assumes that AMD will repeat past moves after earnings. >>
I'll first put up my disclaimer. My short term predictions are about as accurate as the next guys. (about 50/50 :p) However, something to think about is that as soon as people see a trend, they start trying to play it. This breaks the trend. There may be a lot of people looking for this Q to behave like last Q which itself could cause it not to.
(ie everyone starts selling before earnings to avoid the dump after earnings, then the dump is before earnings, now everyone wants to buy back in after earnings like last time, but since so many people sold early there is no dump and a ton of people are looking to buy)
I'm not saying this will happen, but there are no doubt many people looking at last Q and thinking they can pull something like that off. Personally, I wouldn't want to sell just because even if there is a dump somewhere it will get over the hump quickly, and it will probably be no more than 10 bucks a share. At that point I have to ask myself, do I really want to change from long term capital gains back to short term capital gains, and pay taxes so I can try and pick up xxx shares. For the most part I find that I can't entirely successfully time everything, and even if I do I end up hurting myself more in taxes than I really help myself by getting the discounted shares. Right now AMD stock looks good through January, but at that point willamete may be out, in volume, and it could be a very good time to sell. Thinking that far ahead, I'd probably only give a 50/50 chance that any AMD I buy in the future will make it to long term capital gains (which probably won't stop me from buying more, but it will stop me from trading in and out).
Just my 2c. |
