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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Rarebird who wrote (5093)4/10/2000 3:00:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 5676
 
Rarebird,

There is a TA possibility that a double top in the S&P will be The End, provided that the Naz doesn't cross 4600. But the safer bet is for a medium sized drop from there (from 1550 to 1450 area).

I had a conversation today with a very good global strategist working for an investment group. He favors the New Era paradigm, but agrees that the current valuations for tech stocks are over extended. He thinks that the markets will wait for the economical reality to catch up with a choppy LT sideways motion.
IMO that's not what's going to happen because nothing new ever happens in the markets. I can understand sideways like '68-'82 which included two-three major bear markets, but even that IMO is not enough this time to unwind the excesses. I am confined to the cyclic point of view and therefore cannot buy the new paradigm.

ATG
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