Howdy dreydoc and MikeM--first, I think the questions and issues that dreydoc raised are very important and I hope they become a reference point for an in depth discussion. Second, I'm a Qualcommaholic so you guys should probably take everything I say with appropriate cynicism. That said. . .
MikeM, I think you're right to be skeptical at the progress of wireless data thus far but the key phrase is 'thus far'. The analogy I'd ask you to consider is the humble dial-up modem that poked along at, what, 9.6kbs? Even at that speed the academic community made good use of ARAPNET and even found it indispensable. At higher speeds. . . . well the rest is history.
Small screens and low speed render wireless data in its present form more of a 'gee whiz' than a killer app, but its widespread introduction in Japan and now Korea give us a sense of the future. Without exaggeration, Japan has gone bonkers with their "Handy Phones"--admittedly it's mostly teenagers employing short messaging services (meet you at the Starbucks in Yokahama mall), but stock quotes for 'salarymen' and others have found increasing acceptance. So much so that the wireless system has crashed twice in the last month: literally overload. So what about the future, you ask?
Wireless data speeds are now at 14.4kbs (though like 56kbs, you never really get there, so we're really at 9.6kbs where wireline began). This will jump to 56 in a year, maybe a bit sooner, which should be a pretty big deal all by itself. The real kicker is 2002 when fairly widespread deployment of QCOM's HDR (High Data Rate) should be a reality. We are talking 2+ Mbs and that's a whole new ball game. Remember, those ASICs aren't limited to cell phones as they can (and will) be used as wireless data modems for laptops. [actually, most folks will connect their cell phone to their laptop, voila, cell phone = wireless modem]. This of course solves the screen problem but I expect many other 'form factors' will emerge (Palm Pilots on steroids) that will address today's small screens in a variety of creative and very mobile ways.
Then CTXS will be used to cause laptops to run remote apps with performance equal to desktops. There will of course be standards battles between WAP, Symbian, EDGE, GPRS, WCDMA, GSM, CDMA, and Lord knows what else, but I have zero doubt that people will demand data ubiquity. The technology is here now (HDR has already passed field trials: this stuff is way out of the laboratory). To me, it is icing on the cake for CTXS. I've been waiting for them to enter this sector and think it's an enormous positive. Mike (Q-anon) Doyle |
