Momentum and Press Releases.
Don't put too much weight on the impact that a press release is going to have on LAN's share price. No, I am not naive about the ability that speculated rumors of upcoming PR can have on a stock. But in this instance, that is not the primary force behind the movement today. Think about it. We have all heard about various PR's coming out for over a month now and it has served it's purpose. These rumors have created a renewed interest and exposure for LAN. Speculation on an expected profit announcement was built into the stock price in the beginning of March. This is when I first heard about it and so did a lot of other people as the numbers show. Look at the volume from March 1st to the 6th. Then the ATS deal further enforced that the management team was on track. This was evidenced by the spike in volume between the 9th and 14th. On the 15th, a combination of profit taking and a misunderstanding of the Private Placement shook out additional retail investors causing the price to fall. After that a combination of nervous speculators and market conditions worked against us and all the while, smart investors and institutional investors continued to accumulate on weakness. There were probably even a few believers that took a profit and a break and were waiting for the right time to get back in. A lot of those people did today while daytraders and professional who bought on weakness balanced their portfolios and lapped up the profits.
My point is, what really drove the price and volume today was not speculation of a news release. This may have helped a bit, but the fact is that LAN has been garnering a lot of attention through the increased coverage it has been receiving. All of the work that the new management team has been doing to promote the company, Misener's efforts, StockHouse's coverage, etc. has brought in new investors. As well, those with a stronger commitment bought in today for fear of missing these prices. There isn't as much time to sit on the sidelines anymore because the price will continue to climb and as concrete news comes out it will support the price increase that is really being created by increased demand and lower supply.
So don't place too much emphasis on the profit story. I am confident it will be there, but the real story now is that the weight is shifting more towards those who truly believe that LAN has turned things around as opposed to those who were playing it as a speculation. This is a result of the credible endorsements LAN has been receiving such as the latest two StockHouse cover stories.
I spoke with IR and they had received numerous calls from new brokers and institutions that picked up on the performance of LAN today and wanted to know the story. LANPF on NASDAQ was stronger today as we get more interest from the US markets. All of this means that supply will continue to diminish and demand for the stock will increase. This increased interest is what drove the price today and this shift in balance to higher demand for a leaner float is what will truly create the momentum from now on....not press releases per ce. PR on new sales, partnerships, strategic alliances, improved distribution, and new products will serve to reinforce that the turnaround is a reality and this will culminate with the announcement of audited year end and Q4 results (profit). By then it will be too late to catch LAN at these prices.
The best thing that we can all do is trust in our commitment in this investment and hold on for the ride. This wiil only serve to tighten up the supply and enjoy the rewards as the price increases.
As I have said many times before......BE PATIENT.....good things will come to those who wait. |
