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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: that_crazy_doug who wrote (103444)4/10/2000 7:16:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (3) of 1570343
 
Here's a few things that haven't gone right for AMD in the last couple months:
1. K6-2+ is MIA -- it probably required one more die iteration resulting in its intro, probably at same time as Spitfire, being useless for desktop PC's. Lack of a good 550-650 MHz CPU to compete with Celeron will lower K6-2 revs in Q2. AMD may also lose notebook share until it comes out.
2. 1.2 million Athlon sales is below many people on this board's expectations, if Jerry isn't sandbagging at least a little. However, I said months ago, that you can't expect AMD's market share in >$1,000 computers to grow more than 50% a quarter without more business SKU's. If Spitfire's and TBird's come out early enough to get a couple 100K sales each, then Athlon sales can double for Q2. (Spitfire PC's will blow away Celerons.)
3. Intel roadmaps show Willy as a "2H" product. If it arrives Q3, we're in trouble.
4. When Intel's integrated (name?) CPU arrives the K6 series will be obsolete. Spitfire needs to get there first and preferable Spitfire with its Savage4 graphics/VIA integrated chipset.

Having said all of this, AMD is still obviously undervalued. In fact, after seeing MOT's earnings today, I don't have a clue why AMD should not pass Motorola as well as Intel in share price.

Petz
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