>>any interpretations?<<
Sure that is easy.. uh, umm, uh, the market is befuddled!!! <g>
Seriously, I don't think the market knows what it is doing and is grasping at straws, any straws to get going again. Everyone knows AG will raise, yet everyone knows that earnings should be fantastic this quarter. The problem is that while earnings may be good now, the flurry of rate hikes is going to hit them in a few more quarters at the latest.
What I expect mid term is the spinsters to hype the earnings and get J6P buying again but I also expect the instituions will be selling the rallies.
Short term the market is weak and like I said grasping at anything it can. Note how any stock that rallies for a couple days, gives it back within a week. There is no leadership right now and as soon as one sector tries to take the lead, no one jumps on to allow follow through. The internets appear to be dead, B2B is over, semis had a great run but how many morons don't know they are cyclical and with MU missing last month and now MOT failing to come through, not much to bet on there with them trading at a few hundred years earnings. I think it will take SUNW or someone big to getthe tech spark going again.
I did like the financial strength but unfortunatley I think it was a tempoaray spike on the WFC merger news and it will also fade quickly. ABouthte only sectors I see coming due soon are possibly oil, gold and a few IT services type things. Unfortunatley these aren't glamourous enough for the mo mo guys to hype. BGEN missing tongiht wil lfurther hurt the biotechs as I was hoping that them, DNA and AMGN would possibly get something cooking there to get the big H&S in the BTK negated but no such luck now.
Unfortunalty I am short ontime since spring has me doing alot of yard work before I get to come in here and look at the charts only a quick spell.
If I recall correctly, last week I was looking for a retrace of about 50% of teh drop last tuesday. I doubt we will go all the way down for a retest but eading around SI tongiht too many are expecting a succesful retest or higher low so now I am getting worried. Also my favorite contrarian indicator showed back up this morning and was bullish as ever. That is usually a sell signal on it's own.
Yes Don nailed it, that guitar is amazing. I was hoping for a bit more upsdie to turn my 3 line charts up a tad so I could get a completion of the right shoulder on point 25 of the 3 peaks and a dome chart but we dropped too fast today.
What I find most bearish is how the rallies are getting shorter and smaller yet the selling afterwards is getting more intense. I was actually getting short term bullish to a limited degree when I saw EMC, QLGC,PMCS etc try to rally a bit but today they collapsed again. Take a look at the PC sector, it looks like it is teetering on the brink of disaster. GTW flag, DELL engulfings, etc. DELL alredy said earnings would be great yet it can't hold on to a gain and is still flat from 2 years ago almost. GTW hasn't moved much and SUNW tried to duck back into the wedge but slipped back under tonight.
If anyone can get this going, it will have to be SUNW IMO since it has the most consolidation of the leading techs. I think the semis are dead now, B2B, biotech also dead. Telecom maybe but WCOM is stuck in a long term downtrend so it is only good for those bear rallies when it gets severely over sold and that is only a once every couple month play.
The Japanese postal money everyone was counting on seems to be heading into bonds instead of stocks and the little bit that is making it's way to stocks seems to be heading into teh DOW. Now the DOW stocks are getting extended as 5% growth in a hostile rate environment is not worth the PEs they are getting to.
Short term trades rule and if you can go home flat each night, that is even better. <ggg> Most of my charts are in wait and see except for a few short plays here and there.
Good Luck,
Lee
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