Nokia (NOK) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.105

-0.7%

11:11 AM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4121)	4/11/2000 12:33:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) of 34857

Mucho - being unqualified should never stop people from acting like real telecom analysts! I mean - you don't have to be a blind monkey to do as well as real pros. It helps, but isn't a requirement. 10-15% annual price erosion sounds like heaven. As far as I know this is actually better than the industry average. So what is Motorola's problem with dealing with this kind of price erosion? I wouldn't be surprised if Nokia's price erosion this year would be around 12-14%. It's at the Ericsson level of 25% when you should start worrying. At below 15%, improving production technology will keep you ahead of the game. Nokia has the leading production automation percentage in the industry - new production lines are actually automating both manufacturing and packaging into one robotic maneuvre. Nokia has made so much money it can afford to buy top of the line robotics. I suspect that Motorola and Ericsson have been minimizing their production line investment to make their quarterly numbers. This spiral feeds itself. Slacker - I'm really into Siemens right now. They are number three in Europe and making some moves in Asia. They actually picked one of Sisuman's options; they copied shamelessly Nokia's form and user interface and are now selling copycat models at a slight discount. You get 80% of Nokia at 70% of the price or something like that. It works. Siemens has also some nifty proprietary touches like color displays; so they can start building their own, distinct brand that may grow independently strong. Now that WAP and GPRS arrive, that tactic will stop working, though. Whoever gets the early models right, wins big regardless of design and brand issues. The technology is now changing so radically that the entire market will be redrawn. I see this as a positive development; Nokia and Siemens get a shot at smoking Alcatel out of Southern Europe if Alcy misses the internet transition. Tero

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