Ike Classics in Education and understanding..My three probabilities on Mar 9, and the one I preferred has played exactly the way I wanted we have NDX around 3800 and SPX as SPM today minus prem will give you SPH after test of 1342 going higher we are at 1522 on SPM and 1502 on SPX but look at the co-relations and see how we read the under currents like magic..
<<.. The NDX reverses and SPH after initial selling and holding at 1342 or 1290 reverses up strongly, we see NDX at 3800 and SPH at 1480 in two months, we saw that this ' probable resolution' initial breaks many times last two weeks but yesterday action until before we saw DOW NDX both up was unique, as DOW was down 40 and NDX 100. This is a possibility and I rate it as higher than average possible action.>>
If you go back to this post it has some relevance to last week low of 1328 on SPM.. little did I realise that 1342 will hold but what a read gaoing back, looking at it and looking at my little tools I have this one as pick of my posts.... with a benefit of hindsight..
Thursday, Mar 9, 2000 9:23 AM ET
Reply # of 31106
Several times I have highlighted this yawning gap between DOW SPH and NDX, this has three possibilities to resolve..
1.. The SPH moves above 1440 faster than NDX further climb.. the chances are slim for this as faster SPH may also speed NDX climb..
2.. The NDX reverses and SPH after initial selling and holding at 1342 or 1290 reverses up strongly, we see NDX at 3800 and SPH at 1480 in two months, we saw that this ' probable resolution' initial breaks many times last two weeks but yesterday action until before we saw DOW NDX both up was unique, as DOW was down 40 and NDX 100. This is a possibility and I rate it as higher than average possible action.
3.. The third action is a simple break of NDX COMP and...this will lead to one way down..
<<There's something wrong with QQQ (QQQ: Amex) and the underlying Nasdaq 100, but you wouldn't know it from the usual statistical studies. The candlesticks are another matter.
There we have an oversupply of indicators-no fewer than five named patterns. This is terribly confusing, and so we are relying on Steve Nison again, the author of Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
First we have a bullish harami, meaning the small body on Wednesday (the body is the open-close range) is contained within the previous day's large black body. This pattern is bullish only when you are in a downtrend.
When it appears in an uptrend, it's bearish. We have a hanging man, too -- a small body and a long lower shadow. When this appears in an uptrend, it signifies a top that will now reverse.
Finally, the same candlestick could be a spinning top. This means it has a small body, and a small body means little price action. Near a new high, it can be a sign that bulls are losing momentum-as we noted yesterday.
There are some other items of candlestick lore that apply to this picture, but three bearish indications are enough.
It's interesting that the candlesticks for the Nasdaq Composite form "three black candles," a bearish pattern that misses being "three black crows" by not being big enough.
If the Dow is indeed resuming the downtrend in the same channel, and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq 100 and QQQ) are also headed for a corrective fall, it will be the first time in a while that they move together in a downward direction.
We've had them both up, and we've had them going in opposite directions, but not down at the same time. You have to wonder how the Fed is going to feel about that, not to mention the foreign exchange market, which won't trash the dollar but might give respite to the beleaguered euro.>> |
