Zeev, although I do not place much trust in technical analysis, the current closing level for NASDAQ suggests what the TA specialists call a double bottom. The significance is that the NASDAQ index held above 4000, setting the stage for an upturn.
I prefer to look at the fundamentals, which in the case of SNDK are much better than for many other Internet or dot.com stocks. One can only guess concerning the earnings to be announced next week. However, as the article that Betty referenced indicates, there is another factory now in operation in Taiwan, which presumably is adding to the capacity available for SanDisk. This added capacity, together with higher prices for flash units purchased under new contracts, suggests that the last quarter earnings will be above analyst expectations.
The fundamentals, furthermore, remain the same: Very fast growth in product demand, high sales growth, corresponding high growth in royalty payments, and a patent portfolio that looks stronger than ever. Competing technologies are either too far in the future (i.e., fram) or have drawbacks in terms of reliability or power consumption (Cliq, Microdrive, or magneto optical devices). Enough units are already in circulation to set standards both for compact flash and MMC. And finally, SNDK management has a proven track record, is honest, and is employee and shareholder sensitive. Among the thousands of companies I have studied over the past several years, only two -- QUALCOMM and SanDisk -- meet all the criteria for great companies.
If anyone sees dark clouds on the horizon, I'd sure like to know where and what they are. |
