J.L. FWIW (probably not much) based on "gut feel" only I expect to see an x-license agreement between Q and the last big 'un within nine months that will be (gut guess) a net plus to Q in the range of 3.0-4.0% (DS product w. Q ASIC versus Euro ASIC.) It is in each party's best interest.
Q is not well-served by "blocking WCDMA."
I wholeheartedly agree that litigation will result otherwise. There are many issues that can be litigated. Suspect the current FUD fusillades, trials, tests, dances b/4 standards bodies, etc. are all part of the pre-negotiations posturing ritual.
Q's position on patent pooling versus bi-lateral agreements is clear and there is no need to change. And I don't disagree that at some point NOK will need to roll-out WCDMA. They just may not need to do this as soon as some think. I doubt they are feeling desperate.
So, at some point the magic NOK x-license agreement will roll around, and even though the economic terms will have to be pulled out of Q's management via analyst pliars, both sides will declare victory and go on down the road.
P.S. As I understand it, the typical QCOM license agreement grants royalty-bearing licenses for additional IPR that follows, within a defined timeframe, from the IPR being licensed. Clark could speak better to the sprecific parameters. NOK is not pursuing any of the narrowband stuff. I sure would be delighted if 1X and HDR took over the entire world, but rather doubt it.
So, I don't think NOK will be disadvantaged any more than it already is with its poor showing in IS-95. ERICY will play all sides of the street as country markets dictate. MOT, oh man, who the hell knows?
I wonder what expectations are collectively built into the current stock price, and how might that be affected by the various scenarios recently presented on this thread? |
